Black vs Blue and Pink vs Black

After the recovery triggered by upward move of the intraday Black oscillator, supported by the great momentum of the dominant intraday Blue. But as we see from the intraday closing chart for the Nasdaq composite, shown below, the intraday Black oscillator has begun its turn.
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As turning points are the most vulnerable, least momentum situations for the oscillators, the upward momentum of the dominant Blue will exert its influence while Black completes its turn. But once it starts it down move, Black vs Blue will play out for the rest of the day.
In the EOD charts, we see that the upward move of the fast oscillators of this daily scale has induced a turn on the EOD Pink. Whether this upward tick has any sustained momentum we will know in the next couple of days. Here the dominant EOD Black is gathering downward momentum.

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Long Term Changes

In the End-of-Day chart for NASDAQ composite at the close of yesterday, shown below, the downward pressure is clear. 
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The dominant Black has also turned downwards. Recovery hopes rely on the turning around and upward move of the fast oscillators of this daily timescale in the top right panel. But it will face opposition from the Black. Let us check the intraday 15-minute charts of Nasdaq COMP to see how the oscillators of that scale are poised.
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The fast oscillators and intraday residue of the top right panel here signal and early upward move. If it does not have the strength to induce a turn in the Black oscillator here, the gains will be lost as the fast oscillators reverse. The dominant Blue in the bottom right panel is in no mood to reverse yet. The Black oscillator will need to get at least half way in its upward move before we can see a turn induced in the Blue. 
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The Decisive Momentum?

In the last blog, while discussing the EOD charts, I had mentioned that the move by the fast oscillators will decide whether the EOD Black or the EOD Pink will get an upper hand at their respective turning points. From the EOD chart for Nasdaq Composite shown below from yesterday, we can see that the fast oscillators of this daily time scale still have downward momentum left.
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The down move yesterday has broken the upward turn that the Pink oscillator had. Strong close in the negative territory today also will hasten the downward turn of the Black. To get a better idea for the shorter term moves of today, let us look at the Intraday 15-minute charts.
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The upward crossing point of the intraday Pink with the intraday Black that can be seen in the top left panel led to the late recovery yesterday. This should continue to exert its influence today. But in the bottom right panel, notice the massive downward momentum of the Blue. With that opposition around, proper recover will not happen till the intraday Black turns upwards and moves closer to the zero line. 
I had mentioned a quick 2-minute trading technique using the color-coded alerts on our ticker table alone in the previous blog. I will soon post a blog exclusively about the technique.
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At The Turning Points

In the intraday 15-min closing chart for the Nasdaq composite shown below, we find that the oscillators are weakening. The Black and the Pink oscillators have very low magnitude. The Blue oscillator is languishing at its turning point.
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We can find that the main reason for this emaciation of the intraday oscillators is that changes are brewing the in larger time scale daily closing data based End-of-Day charts as shown below.
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In the top left panel, we can see that both the Black and the Pink of this time scale are at their turning points in the opposite ends. Which of them turns around faster will depend on if there are any decisive moves triggered by the fast oscillators here. In the regular course of events, we will have the Pink, which is relatively faster, turning upward first and the market have a positive streak first. But turning points, where oscillators have the least momentum, is their most vulnerable situation.
One very easy rule of thumb for the busy professional using our system is to go by the preponderance of alerts in the ticker table. In the last hour of trading on any day, sorting the ticker table based on the red or green alerts gives a good idea about the direction the next day. We can take a couple of trades in that direction right then. The next day if the market opens in our expected direction, we can take the profit immediately or decide to stay in. Even if the market opens in the opposite direction for some reason, we can take couple of more trades as a double down strategy because invariably the market will move in the direction of the majority of the alerts during the day. In this later scenario of doubling down, we can use the intraday crossing point of the Pink and the Black to time our entries and exit. For today, negative alerts hold the majority in our ticker table.
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Blue Rising

The downward move of the intraday Pink in the morning session yesterday, delayed the turning of the Black. The recovered that gathered momentum after the upward crossing point in the day lost out towards close as Pink turned downwards. In the intraday chart for Nasdaq at close of yesterday, we see that Pink is still heading down.
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In the bottom left panel, we can see that the dominant Blue oscillator has begun its upward move. This move will support the Pink once it turns around today. Let us check the End-of-Day chart to see how much resistance to upward moves are offered by the oscillators of the daily timescale.
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The weak faster oscillators of the daily scale, shown in the top right panel, have potential of a recovery. But in the top left panel, the pressure is still predominantly down with the Pink heading down and the Black peaking out.
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Recovery Wednesday?

The pressure from End-of-Day chart oscillators and the intraday Black and Blue oscillators, kept the Nasdaq composite in negative territory for most of Tuesday. As we can see from the intraday chart at close below, the recovery in the afternoon came from the intraday residue (top right panel) and the intraday Pink oscillator (top left).
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The intraday residue seems poised for a downward move first thing Wednesday morning. We need to see if this move has the strength to slow down or even turn the upward momentum of the Pink. 
Black oscillator is at its bottom turning point and looks certain to turn upwards during the day. 
This possibility is strengthened by the positive alerts having a majority over negative alerts in the ticker table. 
However, since the Pink oscillator, which is faster than the Black, has a downward move due today, the strength of any upward move of the day is bound to be kept in check. 
In the bottom right chart, we see that the dominant Blue oscillator has slowed down. But we need to wait for the morning session to confirm that it has begun turning. 
Now let us look at the oscillators in the end-of-day charts for the Nasdaq Composite. 
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We can see that the Pink oscillator of this EOD time scale has resumed its downward move after languishing near the zero line for a while because of the conflict between its twin components, the Violet and the Green. We can see this downward pressure in the intraday chart shown earlier by looking at the bottom left panel. There the intraday model and price have dropped away from the slow Daily Model. 
Coming back to the EOD chart above, the dominant Black oscillator has certainly slowed down. Sustained downward move from the Pink should initiate its downward turn soon.
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Potential Downside?

After a weaker volume Passover week, let us look at how the oscillators for the Nasdaq composite stand as we continue with the earnings season. First the End-of-Day chart.
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The fast oscillators of this daily time scale, seen on the top right panel, have potential downside. These fast oscillators are summed up in the light Blue
oscillator in the top left panel. We can see that it is heading down with a weak crossing point with the Violet oscillator coming up. The Green oscillator is near its upper limits but still hasn't turned. The downward move from the fast oscillators can initiate the turn in the Green. Remember that the Pink oscillator is nothing but the sum of the Green and the Violet. 
Once the Green oscillator turns downwards, so will the Pink and it will continue down after the brief pause and reversal that it did near the zero line for the last few days. The oscillators of adjacent time periods influence each other. So a continued down move from the Pink oscillator will slow down and possibly turn the Black which has been impressive with its upward momentum recently.
Now let us look at what the intraday charts have in store for today. We use the same color coding for oscillators in both the intraday and the end-of-day charts but the input data for intraday charts is 15-minute price/index points.
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The fast oscillators here on the top right panel are rather weak but have upside to start the day. In the top left panel, we can see that the Black oscillator which turned upwards yesterday will set the tone for the day in its opposition to the dominant Blue oscillator (bottom right). We have more that double the number of positive alerts in the ticker table as negative alerts. This also signals a morning session in positive territory though earning season surprises can upset our calculations. There is a possible upward crossing point between the Black and the Blue oscillator coming up during the day. But that crossing point will be near the peak of the Black's move, so a downward crossing point will soon follow. Learn more about crossing points here.
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Caution Earnings Season

As we move into the thick of earnings season, please be extra cautious with your overnight trade decisions. 
We mention time and again in the user manual that it is better not to risk trading specific stocks close to their dates of earnings announcements. Going back to the analogy of considering our oscillators as groups of traders with similar psychology, we can see that earnings news bring in a flood of new interest into the stock. Such sudden changes take some time to be absorbed into the oscillators. 
It is not only specific stocks but heavy weights in a particular sector who can upset our moves. 
However, the earnings season provides great opportunity for intraday trades. For example, the oscillators and the majority of alerts in the ticker table were expecting a downward move for Wednesday. But the earnings announcement by JPM had the market open up thereby providing a good opportunity for entry. 
As the day progressed, market did drop and later recovered as the Green oscillator promptly went back upwards as can be seen from the NASDAQ composite intraday 15-minute chart at close of yesterday shown below.
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In the top right panel, we can see the spike in the intraday residue at open. The intraday oscillators have lost much of their momentum into this earnings season. It is only the news at open which revives them. With that in mind, let us look at the End-of-Day chart for Nasdaq composite with its oscillators.
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The fast oscillators of this daily time scale reflects the lost momentum of the intraday oscillators. In the top left panel, notice the downward crossing point which though weak as it is close to the zero line, nevertheless adds downward pressure. So going into the bulk of earnings in the next few days, we are looking at downward pressure which can be upset by the daily spikes coming from news. 
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Downward Pressure

In the 15-minute intraday closing chart for the Nasdaq Composite, we see that the Green oscillator, in the top left panel, which is the faster component of the Pink oscillator started an upward move by the end of Tuesday.
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But once this Green also reverses, we will have a tandem downward move from the Pink and the Black downwards for the day. We have nearly equal number of positive and negative alerts open in the ticker table. Notice how the Pink oscillator seems to have slowed down at this point because of the opposing moves of its two components. The picture is somewhat similar for the Pink oscillator of the daily time scale in the End-of-Day charts as well.
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But here it is the Violet component of the Pink that had brought about its down move. This Violet is now nearing its bottom even as it crosses the Black oscillator here downwards. The Green component which is significantly larger here is just beginning to turn. And turning points with least momentum are the most vulnerable for the oscillators. As the momentum of the Pink oscillator weakens till the Green also turns decisively downwards, the upward moving Black could call the shots for the closing in the interim.
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Tuesday's Turns

Over the weekend, the charts have shown clear turn in the direction of the dominant Pink in the End-of-Day charts for the Nasdaq Composite as shown below.
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With the Black oscillator of this daily closing data time scale yet to gather enough upward momentum, the Pink is bound to exert influence first.
Let us check the intraday 15-minute charts at close of Monday to see how the oscillators there are poised for Tuesday.

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In the bottom left panel, we can see that the Daily Model (golden color) which is the longest term indicator in these charts has flattened out. In the bottom right panel, the Daily Residue in gray lingers near the zero line while the Blue is still heading down. The Black oscillator, which can be seen more clearly in the top left panel, has lost its momentum. So has the Violet component of the Pink oscillator which spent most of Monday trying to turn upwards. Unless there is a strong upward move from the Pink today morning, Black will turn downwards as it is due. With the intraday residue in the top right panel out of its upper boundary line, we have a good chance of a downward open on Tuesday.
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