Consistent Black Oscillator

Usually I present the zoomed in version of the top left panel of the intraday chart of Nasdaq composite, so that the immediate moves of the oscillators are clear. In the chart below, without zooming, I want to draw your attention to the consistent moves of the intraday Black oscillator.
Comp1271600

The Black oscillator is plotted in the lower panels also so that you can see its correlation with the actual moves of the NASDAQ and also with the Daily Residue (gray on bottom right). We can also see how the turnings of the Black anticipate and influence the larger Blue oscillator. The moves and crossing points of the Pink (top left) add the the magnitude of the moves in the particular direction.
With this Black heading downwards now and nearing the zero line, the momentum for Friday is definitely downwards. With its Violet and Green components moving in opposite directions, Pink may not have much significance today. The move of Black will also coax the Blue to move down. Remember that we can consider each of the oscillators to represent groups of traders/investors who make their moves periodically.
Now let us look at the developments in the end-of-day chart of Nasdaq composite.
Comp127eod

In the top right panel of this daily scale that uses only daily closing price as data, we can see that there has been a downward crossing point. This signals a lower close for Friday. But in the top left panel, we see the Pink is gathering upward momentum. If the fast oscillator (in light Blue in the top left panel) comes down significantly in the next couple of days and crosses the Green downwards, we will see a delay in the upward momentum of Pink materializing. Remember that in this time scale also, the Pink is the sum of the Green and Violet of this scale.
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At Their Turning Points

Upward move of Black influenced the Blue oscillator to continued upwards on Wednesday as discussed in the previous blog. In the closing intraday chart for NASDAQ composite for the day shown below, once again Black & Blue are at their turning points.
Comp1261600

From the top two panels, there is a chance of upside coming from the weak fast oscillators. Also Pink is due for an upward move later in the day that could bring some recovery. But Black which set the momentum for Wednesday should also set it for Thursday with its downward move. In the bottom right panel, we can see that the daily residue in gray is out of its upper bound poised for a drop. Blue oscillator is also at its vulnerable turning point like the Black. 
Negative alerts have a slight edge over positive alerts in the ticker table. 
Wednesday's move has caused in the Green component of the Pink oscillator of the daily scale to turn upwards as we can see in the end-of-day chart for Nasdaq below.
Comp126eod

But the fast oscillators of this daily time scale (using only daily closing prices and not 15-minute price like intraday charts) in the top right panel are ready for a downward move, mirroring the Blue oscillator and daily residue in the intraday chart. So immediate pressure from these charts is also downward. With a good downward move from the fast oscillators, the upward turn of the Green here will be offset for couple of days.
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Black vs Blue Wednesday

In the intraday closing chart of NASDAQ composite for Tuesday shown below, we can see potential conflicts building up for Wednesday between the oscillators.
Comp1251600

Though the fast oscillators (top right) and the Pink are still heading up and make an upward open possible, we should have the Pink reverse direction as soon as the fast oscillators make their first downward move. This Pink vs Black should set the tone for most of the intraday day move while slower but stronger pressure comes from the conflict between Black and Blue. Black should have an upper hand as Blue is in a low momentum stage. We still have more negative alerts in the ticker table.
In the end-of-day chart for NASDAQ also, we see that the turning down of the fast oscillators of this daily scale in the top right panel below will set the tone for Wednesday's close.
Comp125eod

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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
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Charts Read Down Tuesday

In the end-of-day chart for Nasdaq composite shown below, we can see that almost all of today's move came from the fast oscillators in the top right panel that had an upward crossing point at the end of Friday.
Comp124eod

These oscillators have reached their peak now and are due for a reversal. In the top left panel, we can see that the Black oscillator has begun turning downwards. 
Unless today's momentum continues tomorrow till close, the Pink oscillator will not show any signs of turn here. 
But sustained upward move tomorrow looks doubtful as we have 22 open negative alerts in the ticker table as opposed just a single positive alert. 
This overwhelming majority of negative alerts indicates a down day. But then again, we need to be a little cautious because of the earnings season. 
Let us look at the intraday oscillators in the closing intraday chart shown below to see how they are poised for tomorrow.
Comp1241600

In the top left panel, we can see that there was a downward crossing point of Pink with Black in the afternoon. We can also see a downward crossing point of Black with Blue in the bottom right panel. The effect of both these downward crossing point did not materialize during the day because of the upward momentum of the Blue. But as the Black now nears the zero line, the Blue is slowing down. So tomorrow we should see the effect of both these downward crossing point play out during the day.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
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Can Google Earnings Break the Fall?

Google and GE have beaten expectations with their earnings report. Let us check with the charts from the yesterday's close for NASDAQ to see if these earnings have the power to reverse the two day fall of the market. First, the end-of-day chart.
Comp1201600

In the top right panel, we can see that the fast oscillators of this daily scale have a good chance of moving upwards. However, there is great downward pressure from the Pink oscillator in the top left panel. The Black oscillator looks ready to begin its downward turn at this point. 
Now for the intraday closing chart for the possible moves on Friday.
Comp120eod

Yesterday, we had discussed how the turning of the Blue, which is clearly the most dominant oscillator of this 15-minute time scale, has to wait till Black reaches the zero line in its climb. Now that the intraday Black has crossed the zero line, we should have Blue turn upwards. But today, there is the downward pressure in the form of the Pink oscillator seen in the top left panel. The downward crossing point of Pink with Black some time Friday will keep any upward move of the day in check. From the fast oscillators in the top right, with their conflicting directions, the open looks mixed. But it is a Friday and it is earnings season, so opens are up in the air.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
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Significant Move

Wednesday's move for NASDAQ looked like the long awaited downward move. In the absence of an equally strong bounce back by the market in the next couple of days, we should have the turn around of the Black oscillator in the end-of-day charts discussed in the previous blog and shown in the chart below.
Comp119eod

Notice in the top left panel that the Green oscillator has resumed its downward move. The fast oscillators of this daily scale in the top right panel are still poised down. So Thursday looks like a flat to mild recovery from their attitude.
In the intraday closing chart for Nasdaq composite shown below, we can see how majority of yesterday's move came through the daily residue in the bottom right panel. It plunged from its upper bound to well below the lower bound yesterday.
Comp1191600

Since the oscillators here have amplitudes less than half a percent, only a synchronized move from them can bring about significant chance in the market. Early Thursday it looks set for a retreat of the fast oscillators in the top right panel. They should face some opposition from the upward move of the Pink in the top left. Significant recovery is possible only when the Black oscillator turns upwards which is possible later in the day. Black's upward turn and upward crossing point with Blue will bring about some recovery. If the Blue continues with good downward momentum in the morning session, then reversal needs to wait till Black reaches the zero line which might take till Friday.
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Cautious Buys

At close today, our ticker table has 13 positive alerts open and only 4 negative alerts. As the earnings season is still in progress, it is good to exercise caution with overnight trades during this time. An added reason is the way oscillators are poised in the end-of-day chart for NASDAQ composite shown below.
Comp118eod

In the top left panel, we can see how the upward move by Pink back in November-December had directly impacted the market. 
At that time, the Black oscillator was losing steam in its downward move as well. From the above chart, it looks like we are seeing a reverse of it right now. Pink is heading down and Black is losing steam in its upward move. With this situation, there needs to be added caution with overnight buys. 
Now for the intraday closing chart of NASDAQ today.
Comp1181600

In the top left, we had an upward crossing point towards the close. It is very close to the zero line and therefore may not have much impact. But its timing matches the overwhelming majority of individual positive alerts mentioned in the beginning. 
In the bottom right, the Blue oscillator is still headed up. The daily residue in gray looks like it has some more upside to go convincingly out of the upper bound, before it can reverse. 
This can happen during the day tomorrow, when Pink reverses and heads downwards moving along with the downward Black. This points to a lower close for tomorrow.
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A Market That Refuses To Go Down

For the past few days, the charts have been indicating sustained downward pressure for the market. But the market has managed to inch upwards. In today's closing chart for NASDAQ shown below, we can see how in the last half hour, the fast oscillators (top right) performed a bounce back and worked against the downward momentum that was building up from the Pink oscillator (top left).
Comp1131600

Like in the second half of December, we are once again seeing oscillators reduced to very low magnitude. 
From the fast oscillators which are still pointing upwards, we can expect an early weak upward move tomorrow in the absence of any major earnings news. This move will match the upward crossing point that the Green oscillator has had at the close with the Violet oscillator (top left). 
But this momentum should disappear soon and Pink (=Violet+Green) should reverse into the downward move during the day. 
During this downward move, we should also get the downward crossing point of Pink with Black. 
Considering how slowly Black oscillator has moved today, the upward crossing of Black with Blue which is shaping up in the bottom right panel may not happen till very late tomorrow. 
The fact that it is the end of the week and Monday is a holiday also adds to the caution with chart reading for tomorrow.

Now let us look at the end-of-day chart for NASDAQ composite today.
Comp113eod

The fast oscillators of this daily scale in the top right panel above are clearly heading down and indicate a lower close. In our ticker table, we have very few open alerts on individual stocks but among them negative alerts have a slight edge over total number of positive ones. 
In the top left panel above, the downward pressure gets added force as Green is seen resuming its downward move again after a quirky upside near the zero line. 
The Black oscillator here has around 1% more of upward move left. 
The Pink oscillator has around 3% of downward move. 
Pink should still be pointing down when the Black peaks out and when that happens we should definitely see significant fall in the market.
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Earnings Season

We are officially in earnings season. It is time to cross check automated alerts with earnings chart for individual stocks and also be aware of market moving giants when they report. It is difficult to read the market opens during these couple of weeks. I had expected the market to drop today under the influence of the downward moving Pink oscillator, but today turned out to be marked by the conflict of downward Pink with upward Black.
As we can see from the closing intraday chart for NASDAQ below, the Black has now peaked out. Pink is still going down.
Comp111600

In the ticker table we still have a majority of negative alerts open. 
If we get a downward open tomorrow, the Green oscillator will turn down and most of the morning session will be down as Black begins its descent. 
If earnings reports lead to an upward open, the morning session will see sustained momentum from the Pink which will turn around and head upwards. In this scenario, we might see a pullback as Pink turns down later in the day and Black continues downwards. 
But considering that Black has had the best correlation with the weak market moves in the past few days, I would read Black's down move to be dominant force tomorrow. 
Let us look at the NASDAQ end-of-day charts next
Comp11eod

The Pink of this daily scale has officially crossed the Black downwards here. Thus from the daily scale the pressure is now downwards.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
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Down Tuesday?

After starting the week with a Monday of downward morning move and gradual steady recovery, the closing intraday chart for NASDAQ composite shown below shows downward pointers for Tuesday.
Comp1101600

The upward crossing point of Black with Blue which happened today right before the recovery can be seen in the bottom right panel. 
In the top right panel, we see that the fast oscillators have some more downside. If we open down, in the absence of any uplifting news, the Green oscillator will continue down and Violet oscillator will turn down. This would mean that the downward crossing point of Pink with Black will happen some time during the day bringing further slide. 
In the ticker table at close, we have 15 open negative alerts and only 3 positive alerts, so the momentum for tomorrow is downward. 
We might have some recovery towards close as the Pink turns upwards and the Black reaches its peak.
Now let us look at the end-of-day chart for NASDAQ composite.
Comp110eod

The Violet oscillator in the top left panel here has had a weak crossing point right at the zero line with the Black oscillator. The impact of such a weak crossing point won't be substantial but nevertheless we can expect it to have some downward effect soon.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
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