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Down Thursday?

The Green oscillator (top left), which is the component of the Pink, received support in its upward move today from the Blue (bottom right) and together they kept the market lingering weakly positive. 
From the closing chart of NASDAQ composite shown below, Green looks done with its upward move. 
The downward move of Green will now be synchronized with Black and Violet (which is the other component of Pink).
Comp12291600

In the ticker table, we have 16 open negative alerts and only 6 positive alerts. This also adds to the probability of tomorrow's downward move. Later in the day, we could have some recovery as Black begins to turn.
It should be kept in mind that in the second half of December, the oscillators have had very low magnitude. Looking at the oscillators as representative of groups of traders in the market, we can call this the "vacation amplitude".
Let us look at the End-of-Day chart for NASDAQ. The oscillators here are generated only using the closing daily prices while the oscillators of the intraday charts use 15 minute price data.
Comp1229eod

We have the conflict of Pink and Black going on here in the top left panel. As the Violet component had also finished its downward turn, Pink should be gathering momentum which should impact the market in January.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Conflicting Tuesday

The last week of the year began with a good drop in the morning session, which recovered and closed flat as we could read from the upward crossing point of the Pink with the Black that happened early yesterday. In the closing intraday chart for NASDAQ composite shown below, this crossing point can be seen.
Comp12271600

We continue to see very low magnitude for the oscillators for this time of the year. 
In the top left panel, the Pink is heading downwards but its component Green is almost done with the downward move and Violet is at its turning point. 
The fast oscillators in the top right panel do not have significance at the close. But like on Monday, they could come alive at open of Tuesday as well. 
In the bottom right panel, we can see that a very weak but upward crossing point of Black with Blue is shaping up. In the ticker table, negative automated alerts have a slight edge over positive ones. 
We are in all possibility looking at another day of weak movements. The day will first play out the conflict in direction between Green (as it moves upwards) and Violet and later between Pink(downward) and Black.
Now let us look at the end-of-day charts.
Comp1227eod

As the Violet of this daily scale also turns down (top left panel), the downward pressure is gaining momentum for the New Year. 
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Slow Movements

From the close chart of NASDAQ composite shown below for today, we can see that most of the day was dominated by the upward move of the Black oscillators (top left). The Blue oscillator (bottom right) is still in its turning stage.
Comp12211600

The weak movements we have been experiencing with the market already in "vacation" mode can be seen in how low the amplitude of the oscillators have become. The fast oscillators and intraday residue in the top right panel have some upside early tomorrow. But as we can see, their magnitude of swing is not more than quarter percent. The Black oscillator will have its turn and downward move some time during the day tomorrow. Till the daily residue in gray in the bottom right chart goes out of its upper bound, we cannot expect a substantial downward move from it as well. 
But the downward crossing point of the Pink with the Black that happened today afternoon should bring some downside tomorrow during the day. 
As of close, we have 12 positive alerts and 9 negative alerts open. So the market overall may not have a significant move in a particular direction. 
Now let us see if today's close changed anything in the end-of-day chart.
Comp1221eod

Today's move has been distributed to the fast oscillators of this daily scale and the Black which has completed its turning. That points to another slow day tomorrow.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Winter Solstice

Tuesday, December 21, brings the astronomical coincidence of lunar eclipse and winter solstice after 372 years. While that clearly has nothing to do with the markets, reading the charts from the swinging Monday markets experienced today should be helpful. First let us look at the zoomed in enlarged view of the top left panel of the intraday day chart for NASDAQ composite at close of today.
Comp1220midosc

We can clearly see that since Friday, Pink and Black oscillator had synchronized in their downward move, so the up open we had this morning was a good opportunity for some short term intraday shorting trades. 
Toward noon, we can see that the upward crossing point of the Pink with the Black occurred. This swiftly led to NASDAQ composite gaining 15 points. 
By close we can see that the Pink had turned down under the influence of its Green component.
Now let us look at all the four panels with the distribution of oscillators in the intraday chart. 
Comp12201600

We can see the fast oscillators and the intraday residue in the top right panel had significant contribution to the early moves today which were tweeted real time in our Twitter stream. In the bottom right panel, notice that the Blue oscillator kept on moving upwards today. 
At close, we have a dozen positive alerts open and nine negative alerts in our ticker table spread across individual stocks. Most of these positive alerts have already registered a gain in today's move. Since there is no overwhelming majority of alerts in one direction, we cannot read much about markets move for tomorrow from them. 
From the chart above, we can see that the Black oscillator will begin its upward move tomorrow. In the first upward move of the fast oscillators and intraday residue tomorrow, we should see the Green oscillator also turning upwards. Thus an upward morning session seems possible. But later in the day, we should have a downward crossing point of the Pink with the Black which should result in a pull back. If we get a strongly down open from the fast oscillators, then Black will delay its turning and we will only get a late recovery from the delayed upward move of Green. 
Now let us look at the End-of-Day chart to see if there are any clear signals.
Comp1220eod

The Pink oscillator is exhibiting a flat delayed turn at its peak while the Black oscillator seems to have finished its upward turn. With the conflict between Green and Black, we should be expecting another mild close.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Friday Factor

We started today with more than double the number of positive alerts than negative alerts in the ticker table. While that indicated an upward move today, I had expected, in yesterday's blog, it to happen at open followed by a slow pull back for the rest of the day. Today played out differently with the open being weak, but the market finding upward momentum in two steps during the morning session as can be seen in the closing intraday chart for NASDAQ composite shown below.
Comp12161600

In the top right panel, we can see the upward move reflected first in the fast oscillators and intraday residue. The second move came from the Violet and Black oscillators in the top left panel. Though the Green oscillator tried to get some pull back in the afternoon, it did not materialize. And by close, as we can see Green oscillator was also heading upwards. 
From the chart above, it looks like Violet has paused in its upward move and Black is slowing down ready to turn. From the Y-axis, we can see that all these oscillators have very little magnitude these days. In the ticker table, we have very few alerts open today and among them, there is an equal distribution of positive and negative alerts. This coupled with tomorrow being the end of the week makes it difficult to read a definite direction. It is quite possible that the morning session has some upside under Green and Violet but later in the day, the downward turn of both these and the Black will pull down the market.
Now let us look at the end-of-day charts
Comp1216eod

Today's close hasn't made much difference to the oscillators here. In the top left panel, the pressure is still downwards. 
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Mid December Downward Pressure

At the beginning of the month, we had expected the direction from the End-of-Day chart oscillators to turn down. As we look at the e-o-d chart for the NASDAQ composite, as shown below, we can see that this has materialized.
Comp1215eod

In the top left panel, we can see that the Green component of the Pink oscillator of this daily scale has a downward crossing point with the Violet component. Considering oscillators to represent distinct groups of traders, the crossing points are like their collision when they discover each other's position and adjust accordingly. When oscillators with swing periods close to each other, like the Green and the Violet in this case, cross they influence each other. In this case, the downward moving faster Green should cause the Violet to turn around. 
We can see that the Black oscillator is slowly undergoing its turning process at its bottom.With no oscillator in these charts thus upwards, the pressure is clearly downwards.
To see how this is going to play out in the short term, let us check the intraday charts whose oscillators are derived from 15-minute price data. Given below is the intraday closing chart for NASDAQ composite for today.
Comp12151600

Here we can see that as we had expected in yesterday's blog, we had an up move in the morning session coming from the fast oscillators in the top right panel. But since the move lacked sufficient momentum, it fizzled out in the first downward move of the fast oscillators. Rest of the day was dominated by the downward move of the Pink in the top left panel. The downward crossing point it had with the Black added further to the slide. Towards close, there was a weak attempt at recovery as they Green oscillator raced upwards. 
At close, we can see that the intraday residue (gray) and fast oscillator in the top right panel are still pointing down, though they have a high chance of bouncing back up early tomorrow. We have plenty more open positive alerts than negative alerts in the ticker table which supports this possibility.
The Green oscillator has some more upside but will turn downwards early tomorrow. 
The Violet oscillator is still heading downwards. 
So in the absence of a good upward open, the momentum will stay downwards tomorrow. 
If the jobless claims numbers move the open upwards, we will have a buoyant morning session with the upward crossing point of the Pink with the Black. 
But in the absence of a spectacular up open, the pressure from the end-of-day charts will drag the market down towards close. 
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Open Matters

Another slow day for the market with very little movement. Few individual stocks managed to profit from their automated alerts in our ticker table, but over all there was very little activity. As we look at the intraday closing chart for today shown below, we can read signs of more of the same for tomorrow...or perhaps not.
Comp12141600

In the top right panel, we can see that the fast oscillators indicate an upward open. We have nearly equal number of positive and negative alerts in the ticker table. That indicates no opposition to an upward open. But we can see in the top left panel that the Pink is heading down and the Black has slowed down readying for its turn. 
There are two possible scenarios:
  • If the upward open has great momentum tomorrow, we should see the Green oscillator turn upwards and cross the Violet to sustain the momentum for most of the morning session. This will lead to the Black oscillator turning upwards. In this case, we will still close higher though there will be a pull back in the afternoon. 
  • If the open lacks energy, then first downward move of the fast oscillators will be supported by the Pink and Black will take its sweet time to turn upwards. We will get downward move from the Pink which will be neutralized by the upward moving Black later in the day. 
Let us see what can be read from the end-of-day charts for the NASDAQ composite.
Comp1214eod

The Pink and Black oscillators of this scale (which uses on the daily closing prices as input as opposed to 15-minute pricing of intraday charts) are at their turning points. Pink certainly has the magnitude and speed to lead the way as it is faster than the Black. 
But considering short term, if we look at the top right panel for the fast oscillators of this scale, there is a chance of a higher close tomorrow.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Downward Turn

The week started very slow Monday which seemed deceptive when NASDAQ composite slipped half a percent in the final hour of trading.
In the closing intraday chart for Nasdaq shown below, we can see in the top right panel that much of this final move came from the fast oscillators and intraday residue.
Comp12131600

In the top left panel, we can see that the downward pressure from the Black oscillator continues. We have double the number of negative alerts open in the ticker table compared to positive alerts. The position of the gray intraday residue in the top right panel, below its lower bound, gives a possibility of a bounce back tomorrow early. It is doubtful if the Black oscillator will begin its upward turn tomorrow. It remains to be seen if the FOMC announcement in the afternoon will have any impact.
Now let us look at signals from the end-of-day charts.
Comp1213eod

There is no mistaking the turning down of the Green oscillator of this daily scale in the top left panel.
The Black oscillator of this scale has started its turn as well, but being a slow oscillator it will take some times.
The Green component should lead the Pink oscillator to make its downward move faster than the Black can turn upwards. This signals that the market is headed for a downside soon.
Will Red be the color of this Christmas season?
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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Are We Done Yet?

As we can see from the intraday closing chart for NASDAQ composite show below, we had another slow day coming from the conflicting moves of the Black and the Blue oscillators (bottom right panel). The Pink oscillator(top left) had very little magnitude for the day and the fast oscillators(top right) lost their significance after the open.
Comp1291600

With 14 positive alerts still open in the ticker table with 10 negative alerts, it seems we are headed for another slow Friday for the overall index. 
The weak crossing point in the downward direction for the Pink with the Black can put some downward pressure gaining assistance from the Blue, while the consistent steady upward move of the Black will present the opposition. 
It being a Friday and release of consumer sentiments numbers in the morning session add to the uncertainty of the direction. 
Let us check the status of the oscillators in the End-of-Day charts for the NASDAQ.
Comp129eod

Here the Pink oscillator has definitely started its turn. 
But I think the resulting downside will have to wait till next week when the intraday Black oscillator will also be turning down. 
From these charts, it looks like we are headed for a down cycle for the final half month of the year.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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To Learn More About Our System, Please Check Out Our Illustrated Manual

Conflicting Moves

As we had expected from yesterday's chart, we got an up morning session which lost steam and then regained it towards close. 
However, the recovery was not triggered by the Pink (top left) oscillator as expected. It came from the steady upward move of the Blue (bottom right) during the whole day. 
In the closing intraday chart for NASDAQ composite shown below, we can see that the Black oscillator has nearly finished its downward move.
Comp1281600

Once again, we have nearly equal number of positive and negative alerts at the close. 
From the bottom right chart, it looks like Blue oscillator is going to head upwards to a level as much above as it was below the end of November. 
I expect this to cause more upside tomorrow as the Black will also turn up. But again, the jobless claims news out tomorrow morning can influence the open. If market drops sharply at open, Black will simply delay its turn and we might get a recovery later in the day as Black crosses Blue upwards.
Let us check the End-of-Day charts to see if there are any clear signals coming from there for short term. 
Comp128eod

From the fast oscillators of this daily scale on the top right panel, we can see that again the signal is not clear short term. 
From the top left panel though, it looks like the Black oscillator is getting ready for the turn as the Pink oscillator slows down in its upward journey. 
All this conflicting positioning by both the end-of-day and intraday oscillators makes for an exciting open for tomorrow.
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[1] This blog talks about the significance of crossing points
[2] Learn more about alerts in this manual chapter.
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To Learn More About Our System, Please Check Out Our Illustrated Manual