Orthochronos: the right timing blog http://orthochronos.posterous.com www.orthochronos.com posterous.com Thu, 19 May 2011 04:16:16 -0700 Black vs Blue and Pink vs Black http://orthochronos.posterous.com/black-vs-blue-and-pink-vs-black http://orthochronos.posterous.com/black-vs-blue-and-pink-vs-black After the recovery triggered by upward move of the intraday Black oscillator, supported by the great momentum of the dominant intraday Blue. But as we see from the intraday closing chart for the Nasdaq composite, shown below, the intraday Black oscillator has begun its turn.
Comp5181600

As turning points are the most vulnerable, least momentum situations for the oscillators, the upward momentum of the dominant Blue will exert its influence while Black completes its turn. But once it starts it down move, Black vs Blue will play out for the rest of the day.
In the EOD charts, we see that the upward move of the fast oscillators of this daily scale has induced a turn on the EOD Pink. Whether this upward tick has any sustained momentum we will know in the next couple of days. Here the dominant EOD Black is gathering downward momentum.

Comp518eod

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Tue, 17 May 2011 03:34:29 -0700 Long Term Changes http://orthochronos.posterous.com/long-term-changes http://orthochronos.posterous.com/long-term-changes In the End-of-Day chart for NASDAQ composite at the close of yesterday, shown below, the downward pressure is clear. 
Comp516eod

The dominant Black has also turned downwards. Recovery hopes rely on the turning around and upward move of the fast oscillators of this daily timescale in the top right panel. But it will face opposition from the Black. Let us check the intraday 15-minute charts of Nasdaq COMP to see how the oscillators of that scale are poised.
Comp5161600

The fast oscillators and intraday residue of the top right panel here signal and early upward move. If it does not have the strength to induce a turn in the Black oscillator here, the gains will be lost as the fast oscillators reverse. The dominant Blue in the bottom right panel is in no mood to reverse yet. The Black oscillator will need to get at least half way in its upward move before we can see a turn induced in the Blue. 
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Thu, 12 May 2011 03:40:17 -0700 The Decisive Momentum? http://orthochronos.posterous.com/the-decisive-momentum http://orthochronos.posterous.com/the-decisive-momentum In the last blog, while discussing the EOD charts, I had mentioned that the move by the fast oscillators will decide whether the EOD Black or the EOD Pink will get an upper hand at their respective turning points. From the EOD chart for Nasdaq Composite shown below from yesterday, we can see that the fast oscillators of this daily time scale still have downward momentum left.
Comp511eod

The down move yesterday has broken the upward turn that the Pink oscillator had. Strong close in the negative territory today also will hasten the downward turn of the Black. To get a better idea for the shorter term moves of today, let us look at the Intraday 15-minute charts.
Comp5111600

The upward crossing point of the intraday Pink with the intraday Black that can be seen in the top left panel led to the late recovery yesterday. This should continue to exert its influence today. But in the bottom right panel, notice the massive downward momentum of the Blue. With that opposition around, proper recover will not happen till the intraday Black turns upwards and moves closer to the zero line. 
I had mentioned a quick 2-minute trading technique using the color-coded alerts on our ticker table alone in the previous blog. I will soon post a blog exclusively about the technique.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Tue, 10 May 2011 03:55:01 -0700 At The Turning Points http://orthochronos.posterous.com/at-the-turning-points http://orthochronos.posterous.com/at-the-turning-points In the intraday 15-min closing chart for the Nasdaq composite shown below, we find that the oscillators are weakening. The Black and the Pink oscillators have very low magnitude. The Blue oscillator is languishing at its turning point.
Comp591600

We can find that the main reason for this emaciation of the intraday oscillators is that changes are brewing the in larger time scale daily closing data based End-of-Day charts as shown below.
Comp59eod

In the top left panel, we can see that both the Black and the Pink of this time scale are at their turning points in the opposite ends. Which of them turns around faster will depend on if there are any decisive moves triggered by the fast oscillators here. In the regular course of events, we will have the Pink, which is relatively faster, turning upward first and the market have a positive streak first. But turning points, where oscillators have the least momentum, is their most vulnerable situation.
One very easy rule of thumb for the busy professional using our system is to go by the preponderance of alerts in the ticker table. In the last hour of trading on any day, sorting the ticker table based on the red or green alerts gives a good idea about the direction the next day. We can take a couple of trades in that direction right then. The next day if the market opens in our expected direction, we can take the profit immediately or decide to stay in. Even if the market opens in the opposite direction for some reason, we can take couple of more trades as a double down strategy because invariably the market will move in the direction of the majority of the alerts during the day. In this later scenario of doubling down, we can use the intraday crossing point of the Pink and the Black to time our entries and exit. For today, negative alerts hold the majority in our ticker table.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Thu, 05 May 2011 04:09:56 -0700 Blue Rising http://orthochronos.posterous.com/blue-rising-0 http://orthochronos.posterous.com/blue-rising-0 The downward move of the intraday Pink in the morning session yesterday, delayed the turning of the Black. The recovered that gathered momentum after the upward crossing point in the day lost out towards close as Pink turned downwards. In the intraday chart for Nasdaq at close of yesterday, we see that Pink is still heading down.
Comp541600

In the bottom left panel, we can see that the dominant Blue oscillator has begun its upward move. This move will support the Pink once it turns around today. Let us check the End-of-Day chart to see how much resistance to upward moves are offered by the oscillators of the daily timescale.
Comp54eod

The weak faster oscillators of the daily scale, shown in the top right panel, have potential of a recovery. But in the top left panel, the pressure is still predominantly down with the Pink heading down and the Black peaking out.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Wed, 04 May 2011 04:02:52 -0700 Recovery Wednesday? http://orthochronos.posterous.com/recovery-wednesday http://orthochronos.posterous.com/recovery-wednesday The pressure from End-of-Day chart oscillators and the intraday Black and Blue oscillators, kept the Nasdaq composite in negative territory for most of Tuesday. As we can see from the intraday chart at close below, the recovery in the afternoon came from the intraday residue (top right panel) and the intraday Pink oscillator (top left).
Comp531600

The intraday residue seems poised for a downward move first thing Wednesday morning. We need to see if this move has the strength to slow down or even turn the upward momentum of the Pink. 
Black oscillator is at its bottom turning point and looks certain to turn upwards during the day. 
This possibility is strengthened by the positive alerts having a majority over negative alerts in the ticker table. 
However, since the Pink oscillator, which is faster than the Black, has a downward move due today, the strength of any upward move of the day is bound to be kept in check. 
In the bottom right chart, we see that the dominant Blue oscillator has slowed down. But we need to wait for the morning session to confirm that it has begun turning. 
Now let us look at the oscillators in the end-of-day charts for the Nasdaq Composite. 
Comp53eod

We can see that the Pink oscillator of this EOD time scale has resumed its downward move after languishing near the zero line for a while because of the conflict between its twin components, the Violet and the Green. We can see this downward pressure in the intraday chart shown earlier by looking at the bottom left panel. There the intraday model and price have dropped away from the slow Daily Model. 
Coming back to the EOD chart above, the dominant Black oscillator has certainly slowed down. Sustained downward move from the Pink should initiate its downward turn soon.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Tue, 26 Apr 2011 03:02:46 -0700 Potential Downside? http://orthochronos.posterous.com/potential-downside http://orthochronos.posterous.com/potential-downside After a weaker volume Passover week, let us look at how the oscillators for the Nasdaq composite stand as we continue with the earnings season. First the End-of-Day chart.
Comp425eod

The fast oscillators of this daily time scale, seen on the top right panel, have potential downside. These fast oscillators are summed up in the light Blue
oscillator in the top left panel. We can see that it is heading down with a weak crossing point with the Violet oscillator coming up. The Green oscillator is near its upper limits but still hasn't turned. The downward move from the fast oscillators can initiate the turn in the Green. Remember that the Pink oscillator is nothing but the sum of the Green and the Violet. 
Once the Green oscillator turns downwards, so will the Pink and it will continue down after the brief pause and reversal that it did near the zero line for the last few days. The oscillators of adjacent time periods influence each other. So a continued down move from the Pink oscillator will slow down and possibly turn the Black which has been impressive with its upward momentum recently.
Now let us look at what the intraday charts have in store for today. We use the same color coding for oscillators in both the intraday and the end-of-day charts but the input data for intraday charts is 15-minute price/index points.
Comp4251600

The fast oscillators here on the top right panel are rather weak but have upside to start the day. In the top left panel, we can see that the Black oscillator which turned upwards yesterday will set the tone for the day in its opposition to the dominant Blue oscillator (bottom right). We have more that double the number of positive alerts in the ticker table as negative alerts. This also signals a morning session in positive territory though earning season surprises can upset our calculations. There is a possible upward crossing point between the Black and the Blue oscillator coming up during the day. But that crossing point will be near the peak of the Black's move, so a downward crossing point will soon follow. Learn more about crossing points here.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Thu, 14 Apr 2011 04:45:58 -0700 Caution Earnings Season http://orthochronos.posterous.com/caution-earnings-season http://orthochronos.posterous.com/caution-earnings-season As we move into the thick of earnings season, please be extra cautious with your overnight trade decisions. 
We mention time and again in the user manual that it is better not to risk trading specific stocks close to their dates of earnings announcements. Going back to the analogy of considering our oscillators as groups of traders with similar psychology, we can see that earnings news bring in a flood of new interest into the stock. Such sudden changes take some time to be absorbed into the oscillators. 
It is not only specific stocks but heavy weights in a particular sector who can upset our moves. 
However, the earnings season provides great opportunity for intraday trades. For example, the oscillators and the majority of alerts in the ticker table were expecting a downward move for Wednesday. But the earnings announcement by JPM had the market open up thereby providing a good opportunity for entry. 
As the day progressed, market did drop and later recovered as the Green oscillator promptly went back upwards as can be seen from the NASDAQ composite intraday 15-minute chart at close of yesterday shown below.
Comp4131600

In the top right panel, we can see the spike in the intraday residue at open. The intraday oscillators have lost much of their momentum into this earnings season. It is only the news at open which revives them. With that in mind, let us look at the End-of-Day chart for Nasdaq composite with its oscillators.
Comp413eod

The fast oscillators of this daily time scale reflects the lost momentum of the intraday oscillators. In the top left panel, notice the downward crossing point which though weak as it is close to the zero line, nevertheless adds downward pressure. So going into the bulk of earnings in the next few days, we are looking at downward pressure which can be upset by the daily spikes coming from news. 
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Wed, 06 Apr 2011 05:02:49 -0700 Downward Pressure http://orthochronos.posterous.com/downward-pressure http://orthochronos.posterous.com/downward-pressure In the 15-minute intraday closing chart for the Nasdaq Composite, we see that the Green oscillator, in the top left panel, which is the faster component of the Pink oscillator started an upward move by the end of Tuesday.
Comp451600

But once this Green also reverses, we will have a tandem downward move from the Pink and the Black downwards for the day. We have nearly equal number of positive and negative alerts open in the ticker table. Notice how the Pink oscillator seems to have slowed down at this point because of the opposing moves of its two components. The picture is somewhat similar for the Pink oscillator of the daily time scale in the End-of-Day charts as well.
Comp45eod

But here it is the Violet component of the Pink that had brought about its down move. This Violet is now nearing its bottom even as it crosses the Black oscillator here downwards. The Green component which is significantly larger here is just beginning to turn. And turning points with least momentum are the most vulnerable for the oscillators. As the momentum of the Pink oscillator weakens till the Green also turns decisively downwards, the upward moving Black could call the shots for the closing in the interim.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Tue, 05 Apr 2011 04:45:47 -0700 Tuesday's Turns http://orthochronos.posterous.com/tuesdays-turns http://orthochronos.posterous.com/tuesdays-turns Over the weekend, the charts have shown clear turn in the direction of the dominant Pink in the End-of-Day charts for the Nasdaq Composite as shown below.
Comp44eod

With the Black oscillator of this daily closing data time scale yet to gather enough upward momentum, the Pink is bound to exert influence first.
Let us check the intraday 15-minute charts at close of Monday to see how the oscillators there are poised for Tuesday.

Comp441600

In the bottom left panel, we can see that the Daily Model (golden color) which is the longest term indicator in these charts has flattened out. In the bottom right panel, the Daily Residue in gray lingers near the zero line while the Blue is still heading down. The Black oscillator, which can be seen more clearly in the top left panel, has lost its momentum. So has the Violet component of the Pink oscillator which spent most of Monday trying to turn upwards. Unless there is a strong upward move from the Pink today morning, Black will turn downwards as it is due. With the intraday residue in the top right panel out of its upper boundary line, we have a good chance of a downward open on Tuesday.
Have A Great Day!

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Fri, 01 Apr 2011 04:29:53 -0700 April Opens http://orthochronos.posterous.com/april-opens http://orthochronos.posterous.com/april-opens In the End-of-Day charts for the Nasdaq Composite Index shown below, we can see that among the oscillators of the daily time scale, the Pink has dominated after the ides of March!
Comp331eod

Its strong upward momentum repeatedly spoiled the downward moves of the intraday oscillators in the recent weeks. As the new month begins, we can see that an upward turn has been induced on the Black oscillator while the Pink itself seems to have ran out of steam. Next week will tell us if the Black intends to dominate the proceedings for April and keep the markets higher while the Pink retreats back towards the zero line.
For a reading of the last day of the week and the first day of the month, let us check the intraday 15-minute charts of the Nasdaq Composite.

Comp3311600

The Black and the Blue oscillators of this time scale are in vulnerable low momentum positions. The low magnitude of the fast oscillators in the top right panel and equal number of positive and negative alerts make it difficult to say anything definite about the open. If the downward Pink gathers strength early, Black will delay its turning later into the day. But if the Black oscillators gets a head start upwards, it will induce the Blue oscillator also to keep going up with the pull back coming only when Pink crosses Black downward.
Have A Great Weekend!
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Thu, 31 Mar 2011 04:01:22 -0700 Black Vs Blue Thursday http://orthochronos.posterous.com/black-vs-blue-thursday http://orthochronos.posterous.com/black-vs-blue-thursday Thanks to everyone who emailed me about the India vs Pakistan World Cup Cricket semi-final match yesterday! In the intraday closing chart for the Nasdaq Composite, we are looking at a similar clash between two dominant oscillators, the Black vs the Blue.
Comp3301600

We can see this match up in the bottom right panel. Black has steadily gathered momentum in yesterday's afternoon session. Also note that the Daily Residue after being out of its upper bound on 3/21 has not crossed the lower bound. 
In the top left panel, we can see that the Pink oscillator has weakened lately and still has not turned upwards. 
We have roughly equal number of positive and negative alerts in the ticker table. The very weak fast oscillators and intraday residue in the top right panel do hint a possible low open but with jobless numbers coming out this morning, open can have bigger moves. 
If the open does not bring the intraday Pink oscillator alive in the morning session upwards, we should have the downward Black dominate the day as it progresses.
Let us check the End-of-Day charts now for any changes in the dominant Pink oscillator of this daily time scale.
Comp330eod

The Violet component of this Pink oscillator has indeed turned. Market closes of the remaining two days of the week will determine if the Pink oscillator itself turns down or the Black oscillator here begins an upward march in April. Not much pressure in any particular direction from the fast oscillators of this daily time scale at this time.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Tue, 29 Mar 2011 04:20:45 -0700 Cascading Effect http://orthochronos.posterous.com/cascading-effect http://orthochronos.posterous.com/cascading-effect Examining the historical charts from last Wednesday, we can see that the intraday Pink oscillator had great upward momentum that lifted the market. On Thursday, this momentum was transferred to the intraday Black oscillator and on Friday to the Blue oscillator.  So the market stayed up despite the Pink and the Black heading down on Friday. But yesterday, as we can see from the intraday closing chart of Nasdaq Composite shown below, the dominant Blue has acquired the downward momentum from the Pink and the Black. 
Comp3281600

In the top left panel, we can see that the Black oscillator is moving up slowly and finds the downward Pink opposing it. In the top right panel, the fast oscillators and intraday residue are at their lower end, so early on Tuesday, we can see them in an upward move. But notice the steady downward momentum of the Blue oscillator in the bottom right panel. So this could be a day in which the upward and downward moves of the fast oscillators will alternately take support from the Black and the Blue respectively. The nearly equal number of positive and negative alerts in the ticker table also hints at this. If the first upward move of the intraday residue and fast oscillator doesn't have strength, the Blue oscillator will dominate the day. 
In the bottom left panel, we can also see that in the longer term scale, the price and intraday model have crossed the Daily Model downward. Unless there is an early upward move on Tuesday, this means changes shaping up in the Daily Model. 
To learn more about this let us check the End-of-Day charts for the Nasdaq Composite.
Comp328eod

The fast oscillators of this daily time scale are moving down. So far they have managed to slow down the dominant Pink oscillator in the top left. We'll see in the next couple of days if this Pink turn downwards.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Fri, 25 Mar 2011 05:40:00 -0700 What Goes Up.... http://orthochronos.posterous.com/what-goes-up http://orthochronos.posterous.com/what-goes-up

The upward momentum of the intraday Pink oscillator from Wednesday was passed on to the intraday Black oscillator for the Nasdaq Composite as can be seen in the closing charts of yesterday.

Comp3231600

The Black oscillator is at its vulnerable turning point at close. If the Pink gathers an upward momentum at open, it will delay the downward move of Black.
The upward momentum of the Daily Model in the bottom left panel and the majority the positive alerts have in the ticker table at close also increase the chances of this possibility. Though the Daily Residue in the bottom right panel is at its upper bound, note that the Blue oscillator is having some upward momentum, so we might have to wait till the Black oscillator reaches half way down to the zero line in its move to see any solid reversal.
In the bottom right panel, we can also see that the last bottom to peak move of the Daily Residue was spread over the days from 3/15 to 3/21. We should be looking at a similar time span for the next move to the bottom as well.
The reason for the downward move not happening as expected by the close of this week is visible in the End-of-Day charts where the Pink oscillator of this time scale has utterly dominated.
Comp323eod

There is no sign yet of any reversal for this Pink, but the fast oscillators of this scale are once again at their upper bound. Reversal should begin with them and induce a turn in the Pink.
Have A Great Weekend.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Wed, 23 Mar 2011 03:35:00 -0700 Midweek Mapping http://orthochronos.posterous.com/midweek-mapping http://orthochronos.posterous.com/midweek-mapping

In the enlarged left panel of the intraday closing chart for Nasdaq Composite shown below, we can see the Pink oscillator struggling to gather its upward momentum. 

Comp322intra1
There is no sign yet of an upward turn from the Black oscillator. With plenty of both positive and negative alerts staying open in the ticker table, it is difficult to gather a definite direction for the overall market from them. But when we take a closer look at the bottom right panel of the intraday closing chart as shown below, we can see that the Red oscillator and Daily Residue are back within the bound. 
Comp322intra2
So we can use this simple rule of thumb to read this as longer term downward pressure continuing. So the Wednesday brings us the opposing moves from the upward Pink and the downward Blue in the intraday charts. 
Now let us look at the End-of-Day charts for the Nasdaq Composite.
Comp322eod
In the top right panel, as expected, the fast oscillators have reversed. In this daily time scale also, the sum of the fast oscillators is represented in the top left panel in light Blue. Last week, I had written about the upward moves to be expected when this sum Blue crosses the other oscillators in the top left panel upwards. Now we can expect the opposite as the downward crossing points line up.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Tue, 22 Mar 2011 04:07:38 -0700 Turnaround Tuesday? http://orthochronos.posterous.com/turnaround-tuesday http://orthochronos.posterous.com/turnaround-tuesday The big move early Monday brought the Daily Residue in the intraday chart of Nasdaq Composite way out of its upper bound as we can see in the bottom right panel of the closing chart screenshot shown below.
Comp3211600

In the top left panel, we can see that both the Pink and the Black has downward moves due on Tuesday. Though with a time period close to one trading day, the Pink has possibility of an upward move in the afternoon. The dominant Blue should turn downwards only when Black reaches the zero line. 
From the fast oscillators on the top right having upside left, the open could be mild as this up move finds opposition from the Pink and the Black. 
Negative oscillators retain majority in the ticker table with most of them staying open through the Monday which went against them.
In one of the last week's blog, I had mentioned about the fast oscillator from the End-of-Day charts leading to an upward move as it crosses the other oscillators of those charts upwards. In the EOD chart from Monday for the Nasdaq Composite shown below, we can see that the fast oscillator (light Blue in the top left panel) has indeed done this move. 
Comp321eod

On Friday's intraday charts the intraday oscillators had lost their momentum towards close. When we get huge moves at open or close of the trading day, it is the EOD oscillators coming into play with priority over weakened intraday oscillators. From the top right panel above we can see that the components of the fast oscillator here have gone out of their upper bound. So we can expect a turn around from them today. With the Pink of this daily time scale heading up, the pull back may not be that drastic today. On the downward move of the Blue here now, it will cross the other oscillators downwards and that should possibly erase all of Monday's gains by the end of the week.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Thu, 17 Mar 2011 04:13:39 -0700 Recovery finally? http://orthochronos.posterous.com/recovery-finally http://orthochronos.posterous.com/recovery-finally Wednesday demonstrated the possible swiftness of news related intraday moves. After the morning session, the intraday Pink dominated with its downward move. After the Violet component of the Pink finished its downward move, the Green component, that had gained dominance after FOMC announcement, moved down and brought further fall. In the afternoon, the intraday residue made a quick bounce back. The day was anything but calm as I had anticipated in the previous blog :-) As we can see from the closing chart of Nasdaq composite, the upward moves from the Black and the Blue haven't been able to steady themselves.
Comp5161600

After the dip at close, the fast oscillators still haven't turned around in the top right panel. A good upward move from them early in the day will set the tone through the Black and the Blue. In the top left panel, the Green has certainly slowed down, but the Violet will offer some opposition initially to its turn around. We have double the number of positive alerts as negative alerts open in the ticker table. This also hints at a recovery early on.
In the End-of-Day chart for Nasdaq Composite, the pressure from the slower oscillators of the daily time scale remains downward. But with the fast oscillators being out of bounds, the chance of a recovery exists.
Comp316eod

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Wed, 16 Mar 2011 04:26:00 -0700 Calm After A Stormy Tuesday? http://orthochronos.posterous.com/calm-after-a-stormy-tuesday http://orthochronos.posterous.com/calm-after-a-stormy-tuesday

The tumbling Tuesday played out as discussed in our previous blog post.
After beginning with a massive drop, slow steady recovery continued through the day with the Blue oscillator coming alive after the FOMC announcement. The morning session delivered neat profits for the 12 negative alerts across individual stocks that had stayed open from Monday. And we saw positive alerts take over the majority in our ticker table half an hour or so into the open leading to gains within the day.
Now let us look at the intraday closing chart for the Nasdaq composite for Tuesday to see if the FOMC has really managed to get the Blue trading bloc back in action.

Comp3151600

In the bottom right panel, we do see the Blue heading back upwards. The Daily Residue in gray has also come back within the bounds after the big drop at open. Let us check the oscillators faster than Blue to see how much opposition and influence it will face on Wednesday in its upward trajectory. Remember that the faster the oscillator the earlier its influence will be felt but tempered by the moves of the slower ones since, ultimately, the price is the sum of all the oscillators and indicators.

The Black oscillator seems to have paused in its downward path. This behavior is in response to the enhanced upward move experienced by the relatively faster Pink in the afternoon. Pink=Green+Violet and out of these components, the Green had extra life in the afternoon. The upward crossing point of the Green with the Violet happened right before the FOMC announcement. Learn more about crossing points here.

  • The fastest among the intraday oscillators can be seen in the top right panel. They are the ones behind the dip that the market experienced towards close yesterday as I had tweeted. These oscillators still have some downside to go early Wednesday. This down move could in turn influence the Pink oscillator to turn down.
  • If the first bounce back of the fast oscillators early Wednesday lacks momentum, the downward move of Pink will gather momentum and offer opposition to the upward move of the Blue setting the tone for the morning session. The caveat remains that this Blue is the most dominant oscillator in terms of magnitude and has been sitting quietly on its bottom for a while now, so we can never rule out the possibility of it leading the charge for the day right from the first upward move of the fast oscillators after open!

Downward crossing point of the Pink with the Black could cause further slide when it occurs. But Pink's time period is roughly a day, so in the afternoon, we could see a tandem move upwards from the Pink and the Blue.
As of close of Tuesday, the negative alerts have an edge over positive alerts in the ticker table, but I expect that to change as the day progresses.
Let us see what signals we can read from the Tuesday End-of-Day chart for Nasdaq Composite about the closing for Wednesday.

Comp315eod

The faster oscillators of this daily scale as seen in the top right panel above do retain a chance of a turn around with the residue (gray) being out of its lower bound. But the longer term pressure continues to be down as seen from the top left panel. The fast oscillators here are summed up in the light blue line on the top left. If the turn around happens by close of today, we will have the chance of an upward crossing point of this Blue with the Pink here leading to good upside the day after.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Tue, 15 Mar 2011 05:07:00 -0700 Tumbling Tuesday http://orthochronos.posterous.com/tumbling-tuesday-0 http://orthochronos.posterous.com/tumbling-tuesday-0
With the dominant intraday Blue oscillator of the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) languishing lifeless near its bottom, Monday was again controlled by the downward move of the Black oscillator. The upward move later in the day by the intraday Pink and the fast oscillators which can be seen in the closing chart below failed to revive the Blue.
Comp314
We head into Tuesday with the intraday residue in the top right panel reversing downwards from its out of upper bound position. In the top left panel, notice that there has been a weak but downward crossing point between the two components of the Pink. Learn more about crossing points here.
With practically no momentum for the Blue and the Black steadily heading downwards, the only hope for any rise rests on FOMC meeting announcement's ability to revive the traders of the Blue bloc Tuesday afternoon! This component of the market took its hands off when the news of Saudi riots broke back on Thursday and have stayed away as uncertainty in Japan continues.
In the ticker table, we have 12 negative automated alerts (including one on COMP based on its Black osc) and only 4 positive ones.
Let us check the End-of-Day chart for the COMP to see how oscillators of this daily time scale are poised.
Comp314eod
Monday's move has diminished the upward momentum of the fast oscillator shown in light Blue in the top left panel. We can see that among this fast oscillator's components shown in shades of brown in the top right panel, a downward crossing point is also shaping up. With the Pink and the Black of the EOD charts also heading down, the pressure from these charts is clearly down.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting Mon, 14 Mar 2011 05:02:33 -0700 ORCL Correlation: 2 weeks, 5 moves, 4% each! http://orthochronos.posterous.com/orcl-correlation-2-weeks-5-moves-4-each http://orthochronos.posterous.com/orcl-correlation-2-weeks-5-moves-4-each
In this Monday blog, we'll discuss a chart that was brought to my attention last week. Besides showing the effectiveness of an indicator like Daily Residue, this example also shows that it pays (literally) to give some attention to the stocks in the ticker table that may not have automated alerts operating on them. ORCL is far from an obscure stock.
In the intraday closing chart for ORCL from Friday shown below, observe the two panels at the bottom.
Orclintraday

In the time period from 2/28, it is clear how the Daily Residue (gray in the bottom right panel) reverses its direction every time it goes out of bounds and the price also correspondingly moves. We can see the price drop from a little over $33 to close to $31.5; then back up again to $33 and returning to $32, once more increasing to $33 and falling back to $31.5. 
That is 5 moves each averaging about 4% each in two week span! 
Using the historical charts at the site, we can see that there were a couple of more moves if we go back to mid-February.
The Daily Model (gold) in the bottom left panel is our slowest indicator. In the case of ORCL, note that during this period, it has remained almost flat with some downward bias coming in now. It is this nearly zero intereference from the Daily Model and that means from the End-of-Day oscillators, that has allowed this rhythmic move of the Daily Residue and intraday oscillators and the price. The EOD chart for ORCL is shown below.
Orcleod

In the top right panel, the fast oscillators of this scale perfectly mirror the behavior of the Daily Residue recently. One of the reasons why we don't have automated alerts on this stock at this time can be seen in the bottom panels of these charts. ORCL in Sept and Mid November had drastic upward moves quickly. Now that the larger time scale oscillators are much more settled here, the intraday oscillators are able to have a steady effect. But the stock being heavily traded and invested in, always retains the risk of drastic overnight moves.

A word about Nasdaq Composite (COMP) charts for Monday before winding up this blog post: Despite the tragic tsunami in Japan, the upward move coming from the Black oscillator remained more or less steady as we had discussed in Friday's blog. By close of Friday, the Pink oscillator is heading down anxious to pull down the Black which has nearly exhausted its upward potential. The fast oscillators and presence of majority negative alerts in the ticker table also add to this possibility in the early sessions. But once more the Blue oscillator is attempting its upward move. On Thursday, this move was put on hold when the Saudi news came in at the middle of the day. In the absence of any such unexpected news in the middle of the day, with the first bounce of the intraday residue & fast oscillators, Blue might gather enough steam for the day.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/633028/orthosymbol.gif http://posterous.com/users/5BcdrM8mGc1z Orthochronos Forecasting orthochronos Orthochronos Forecasting