Trading Against Alerts

As explained in the manual, our automated alerts as only endowed with bare minimum intelligence. Fundamentally, they should be considered as something that just draws our attention to a stock's chart. A quick chart study not only gives us the much needed safety check but it can also present other possibilities. Thus even after an alert has been open (i.e. last two digits turned to 00) it makes sense to check out the charts for opportunities.
Sometimes, as shown in the example here, some alert can lead to executing the exact opposite trade.
Keep in mind that blindly trading our alerts with good odds still leads to consistent growth of capital over time, but a little human intervention can enhance the performance greatly.

This positive(buy) alert was issued on AKS at 3:30pm yesterday (9/14). A quick glance at the Intraday chart shows us that it is not a safe trade to take. The turnaround of the Pink that has triggered the automated alert is not concrete. The fast oscillators definitely indicate downside. The Blue oscillator is very similar to NASDAQ Composite's oscillator. But it is clear that the Blue hasn't had much correlation with the price recently. This means End-of-Day oscillators are significant for this stock.
And very importantly, from the bottom left channel we can see that the price has been drifting lower along with the Intraday Model (brown) below the Daily Model (gold).
Does it mean that the Daily Model is due to turn around?


Aks914intra

To find out if a longer scale reversal is heralded by the downward drift of the price, let us check the End-of-Day charts.

Aks913eod


Just like the Blue Oscillator in the Intraday, the huge Black Oscillator hasn't had much correlation with the price, but the Pink has and with a magnitude of swing close to 20%, it is very significant. Once again, this oscillator is very much resembling the End-of-Day Pink of NASDAQ COMP which was discussed in the previous blog.

So though the alert is for a buy, the stock looks ready to slide. And indeed it slid opening on 9/15 over 4% down. Steadily drifting down through the day despite the swings of NASDAQ, AKS closed on 9/15 at $13.7 a full dollar or 6% lower than the entry price of $14.57.

Chart this alert had drawn us to thus delivered profit from a trade in the opposite direction. At the same time, our system also delivered profit from an alert based overnight trade of RFMD (short) and roundtrip trade of ADSK (long) today among others.

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Three Roundtrip Trades from Today

For those interested in daytrading, here are three rountrip trades based on alerts from today. Our automated alerts signal trading opportunities of different durations so you can pick trades of duration that match your trading/investment philosophy.

There is 1 buy and 2 shorts in the list below and from the alert digits, we can see that all were expected to have duration less than one trading day.

 

Ticker       Alert        Entry Price     Exit Price      Duration   Profit%

MXIM   62316113607   $16.56           $16.91         ~2hrs      2.1%

HBAN  -72313134906   $6.12           $6.05           ~2hrs      1.1%       

CBRL  -54007086507   $50.82          $50.26         ~50min    1.1%

 

Using charts (sans alerts), shorting AKS was also a profitable roundtrip today.

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Round-trip Trades so far this week

Here's a list of trades that have opened and closed based on alerts with T.R*P.R>3.5 so far this week.

 
Ticker      Alert type     Entry Price       Exit Price        Profit
 
CAT           buy(6)           64.45               66.47            3.1%
 
AKS           buy(6)          12.94                13.22           2.2%
 
AKS           buy(5)          12.95                13.19           1.8%
 
MT             buy(4)          29.45                30.31            2.9%
 
IDTI            buy(7)          5.23                   5.22             0
 
CPRT         buy(6)          35.70                36.25            1.5%
 
GTI            buy(7)          15.27                 15.48            1.4%
 
FCS          buy(7)           9.36                   9.36              0
 
CMN        short(-5)          17.07                16.92            0.8% 
 
BRC          buy(7)           25.98                 26.03            0
 
DD           short(-5)          37.09               36.86             0.6%
 
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