Seeing the Seesawing in the Charts

Here's the NASDAQ Composite Index chart as of 11:15 am. 

Notice how the fast oscillators had anticipated all the morning seesawing. The upward movements of these oscillators received support from the both the Pink (top left panel) and the dominant Blue (bottom right). Only the Black is downward. 
On the title of the bottom right chart you can also notice that we had an automated up alert that is active. This alert had come in at the end of the day yesterday based on the upward turn of the Pink.

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Blue Rising

Last week, we were monitoring the turning around of the dominant Blue oscillator in the intraday charts of NASDAQ composite index. 

The Intraday chart from 12:15EST today (8/16) is posted below. 
We can see that over the weekend, the Blue has moved consistently and as expected the composite index has entered positive territory today despited apparently depressing news about Japan and housing. 
As explained in the general rule of thumb here, we had indeed expected the turn around to happen some time between the Red oscillator entering the lower bounds and reaching the zero line, given the strong downward slope of the Daily Model that is visible in the bottom left panel of the figure.

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The strong downward slope of Daily Model comes from the situation in the end-of-day chart shown below. We can be sure of the turnaround only after the Pink oscillator turns here. If the Fast oscillators in the top right chart below move upwards with good momentum, we can expect the Pink to do just that.

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Examining An Unsafe Alert

For anyone who has seen our charts with its consistent oscillators and indicators, it is fairly intuitive to understand that we can form various trading strategies using the turning of the different dominant oscillators or a combination of them. Several such strategies were developed and applied to historical data of different stocks. The alerts come from the best of such time tested strategies. 

For example, based on the historical charts of a stock, let us say that there were good trading opportunities (price movements) based on say

  1. A combination of Mid and Fast oscillators
  2. The turning of the Mid oscillator
  3. Combination of Mid and Black oscillators

Each of them is a particular trading strategy. Since the oscillators have different periods of oscillation, it is clear that these opportunities provide trades with different durations. For example the first strategy mentioned above would lead to trades with duration less than a trading day while the third one above leads to trades that take close to two trading days between entry and exit.

The main philosophy behind the trading strategies is that they are tractable, i.e. the user is able to understand by looking at the graph, why an alert came up.

Every trading technique has the following basic intelligence:

  • Identifies dominant oscillators or combination of adjacent oscillators
  • Ensures that the intraday model's slope is not strongly in the opposite direction
  • Uses the faster oscillators to improve the entry point

Thus the alerts are meant to draw attention to charts that have great potential for trades. We can see that not many of the safety factors are built into this basic intelligence. We are continuously adding more safety factors and testing them over greater historical time period to improve the quality of the alerts.

However, it is important to conduct a quick and easy chart study to examine the safety of a potential trade. For example consider the alert of type 5 issued yesterday (8/4) at 11:30 for Ceragon Networks Ltd (CRNT). The alert and price is marked on the title of the bottom right panel and the time is marked on the time line at the top. The main points to note are included in the figure.

Crntentry


With the Blue menacing in this Intraday chart, let us consult the End-of-Day chart for CRNT from the closing of 8/3 for some more safety analysis.


Crntend83

The alert has drawn our attention to a potentially unsafe trade.

Below is the chart from 1:30 today (8/4) with the bottom right panel enlarged so that we can clearly see how the dominant Blue behaved and influenced the price.

Crntlatest

We can also see that recently there has been an upward crossing point of the Black and Blue in the upward direction that produced an uptick in the price as expected.

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