A Tale of Two Sentiments

Honoring the continuing earnings season, lets examine the charts of two stocks that reported in the last two days.
Silicon Image Inc (SIMG) reported after close on Tuesday and Arcelor Mittal (MT), world's largest steel maker, reported at open on Wednesday.
Post the report, SIMG soared over 25% while MT stock was down.
Financial news analysis is an interesting business. It is always entertaining to watch reports trying to find "causes" for stock movement after the fact. Thus routinely we have stocks that slump "despite" good news OR the markets "ignoring" bad news and letting price rise :-)
In the case of SIMG, the reports could breathe easy because the company jumped to profit and that "caused" the stock to soar. MT also reported profits but the outlook regarding China wasn't good news. That "caused" the stock movement downward!
Keeping that fundamental analysis in mind, let us look at the Orthochronos charts for these tickers.

Examine the End-of-Day chart for MT from 7/27 below. The oscillators are poised for a downward move.

Mtendofday

Additionally, in the above chart, we see the conflicting directions of dominant Black and Pink oscillators leading to the price moving in a tight range recently.

Now look at the contrasting situation of the oscillators for SIMG end-of-day charts below.

Simgeod

Our technical indicators don't look for "causes" and "effects", they just continue their consistent motion.

It shouldn't be much of a surprise that market sentiments can be effectively modeled considering that even marital sentiments has come under mathematical scrutiny :-)
http://ittakes30.wordpress.com/2010/07/27/the-mathematics-of-marriage-or-less-happily-ever-after/

Have a great day!

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Round-trip Trades so far this week

Here's a list of trades that have opened and closed based on alerts with T.R*P.R>3.5 so far this week.

 
Ticker      Alert type     Entry Price       Exit Price        Profit
 
CAT           buy(6)           64.45               66.47            3.1%
 
AKS           buy(6)          12.94                13.22           2.2%
 
AKS           buy(5)          12.95                13.19           1.8%
 
MT             buy(4)          29.45                30.31            2.9%
 
IDTI            buy(7)          5.23                   5.22             0
 
CPRT         buy(6)          35.70                36.25            1.5%
 
GTI            buy(7)          15.27                 15.48            1.4%
 
FCS          buy(7)           9.36                   9.36              0
 
CMN        short(-5)          17.07                16.92            0.8% 
 
BRC          buy(7)           25.98                 26.03            0
 
DD           short(-5)          37.09               36.86             0.6%
 
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A Sample Arcelor Mittal (MT) Trade

Take a look at this buy alert of type 4 issued for Arcelor Mittal (MT) at 1:45pm on 7/12.
The alert number 42713322619  tells us that the Trade Ratio(TR) for this strategy on MT historically is 2.7;
the Profit Ratio(PR) is 1.3; The average profit has been 3.2% from the 26 trades so far.
We can also see from the last two digits that average trade duration is 1.9 trading days.

With is information, lets examine the graph for the trigger of the alert and its safety.
In the bottom left chart we can see that in the recent past, the price has correlated well with the Pink and Black oscillators.
Now, this alert comes from a combination of these two with the Pink having just crossed the Black upwards as we can see clearly in the top left chart.
The gray residue has touched the lower bound in the bottom right chart. The yellow DTI line is indicating at upward trend.
So, though the Blue oscillator is still slowly moving south, considering the high quality of the alert (from the TR and PR) and correlation of price with Black and Pink, this trade looks good to take. The entry price you can see below is $29.45.

Mtbuy712

The exit for this alert was issued today(7/14) morning at 11:15 am, so the trade last roughly two trading days as average duration had indicated.
In graph below, we can see that the price has continued its correlation with Pink and Black. The exit alert is issued as the Black is now turning down and so are the fast oscillators on the top right. The exit price is $30.31. So the profit is 2.9% slightly lower than the average for this strategy!

Mtexit714

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