Six Round-Trip Trades and the September Surge

The markets have opened September with a bang and NASDAQ was trading over 2.5% up in the morning session just as our Composite Index charts had indicated yesterday!

Before we get to today's NASDAQ charts, here are 6 round trip trades our automated alerts(entry and exit) delivered since yesterday (8/31). There are three buys as seen from the positive alert numbers and three shorts. To learn more about alert numbers, visit this blog or check out our manual.

No.  Ticker          Alert                Entry Price        Entry Time      Exit Price       Exit Time      Profit %

1.     STMP     56508184513        $11.05              11:40               $11.25           15.53            1.8%

2.     AMKR     62316314911        $5.23                10:28               $5.29            12:00(9/1)      1.1%

3.     CRNT      79912142204       $8.55                12:58              $8.75            10:25(9/1)       2.3%

4.     RFMD     -54008206007        $4.9                  14:07               $4.85            15:07            1.0%
 
5.     ATML      -72811164206        $5.87                14:09               $5.79            15:39            1.3%

6.     BBY      -54507074404         $31.65                14:10              $31.38           14:57            0.8%

This performance is from blindly following the alert. As we have seen in an earlier blog entry, the performance can be improved by fine tuning the automated alert entries and exits by consulting the charts. You will notice that the alerts listed above have odds (i.e. TR*PR) above 3.


Now let us look at the NASDAQ Composite charts. In the Intraday chart below, we can see that the Pink oscillator has surged and its magnitude has been redistributed into two components: Violet and Green. Remember that Green had disappeared yesterday because of lack of magnitude.

Comp91intra


And here is the End-of-Day chart from yesterday. The top left panel has been zoomed in to show the upward crossing point.

Comp831endofday


From the charts above, you can access the movement of the market for the future. Keep in mind that the faster oscillators have immediate impact but the Price/Index is always the sum of the oscillators and the indicators.

In a month, our service delivers well over 200 round trip alerts.
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A quick STMP shortage!

Let's take a look at a quick round trip short sell alert from this morning (08/02). It's always interesting to discover profitable short trades on a day the NASDAQ Composite is over 1.5% up.
Stamps.com Inc (STMP) had an automated potential short sell alert issued this morning at 10:15 am as shown on the time-line at the top of the chart. In the chart below, the alert and price on the title of the bottom right panel.
Before getting to the figure, let us quickly check out the alert number itself.
The alert number here is -57808213514. "-5" indicates it is a short alert of type 5.
"78" tells us that the trade ratio (TR) for this automated strategy is an overwhelming 7.8 i.e historically the ratio of good trades to bad trades is 7.8.
Next pair of digits "08" tells us the profit ratio (PR)=0.8 (i.e. ratio of  sum of profits made from profitable trades to loss in remaining trades as percentages)
The relatively lower profit ratio compared to a very high trade ratio indicates that we have been favoring faster exits for this strategy.
So despite the average trade duration of 1.4 days (indicated by the last two digits of the alert) we can expect quicker exit alert from this strategy if reasonable profit is made. An indication of what is "reasonable" comes from the average profit of this strategy which is 2.1% as given by the pair of digits "21".
The remaining pair of digits "35" tell us that 35 historical trades have been triggered by this strategy and the statistics given in this alert number have been accumulated over them.

Now check out the figure below. A quick note has been added to each panel about the oscillators in them. It is easy to see that this trade is rather safe.

Stmpshort82

The exit alert was triggered at 11:45pm, just one and a half hours later. Remember that exit alerts consist of all 10 later digits turned to zeroes.
The chart at that time is given below. The exit price is $10.78.
Now we can see that the fast oscillators on the top right panel have gone out of lower bounds. Since "reasonable" profit has been made rather quickly, the exit alert is triggered.
From the positioning of the other oscillators, it seems like there might be future opportunities for safe shorting after the fast oscillators finish their upward push.
When we consider such opportunities, we should also be keeping in eye out of potential crossing points that are imminent between the dominant oscillators!


Stmpexit

 
Thus even blindly following the alert would have yielded a profit of 1.64% in around 90 minutes!
Pretty sweet considering it is a short trade on a day the market is up!

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